A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO THE CRISIS

 A Negotiated Solution to the Crisis

Dr. Genaro Mosquera

August 2024

 

A social conflict is being generated and no force can stop it. A significant portion of the conflict is a democratic desire for change in the face of the regime's formidable repression, which has resulted in the loss of the popular base and an unfavorable electoral process. Civil society must transform, yet the regime is adamantly opposed to this, prioritizing preserving its interests and, most crucially, those of Eastern countries from a geopolitical standpoint. This includes the intervention of Cubans in Venezuela and their increasingly invasive role as mercenaries.

The current electoral circumstances appear to be similar to those observed in previous scenarios, where fraudulent practices were employed by individuals with ties to state institutions. These individuals utilized armed forces and illicit means to advance their agendas, supported by the actions of illegitimate representatives from paramilitary organizations and the military sector. The announcement of a profit that does not belong to them has effectively derailed the democratic process. This has resulted in a total social crisis, the full implications of which will become apparent in the near future.

The electoral result was disregarded with untenable arguments, resulting in the falsification of data and the imposition of fraudulent results. This is similar to what was achieved in 2018, where a more extensive fraud was perpetrated. The fraud was demonstrated over time and resulted in criminal sanctions that were not complied with due to the contempt and opportunistic collaboration of those profiting from the regime and those they call collaborationists, who at the time did not even speak out.

The dictatorship has already expressed its refusal to recognize a legitimate victory. It is relying on the TSJ, the Attorney General's Office, and the CNE to advance its position. The arguments being used are not based on legal precedent. They are receiving direct instructions from the combined force of the communist government of Cuba, the strategic lines of the Sao Pablo Forum, and the interested geopolitical support of Russia, China, and Iran. They are perfecting illegal procedures for open persecution and communication closure, transforming media outlets into propaganda machines, and controlling programming with the threat of imprisonment and torture. This is a classic socialist scheme, but with an additional goal of eliminating the leadership of civil society.

The international democratic and institutional response has a clear diplomatic narrative on the basic problem, which is the recognition of the opposition victory. However, it is not possible to trust the public powers, including the military sector, whose members are directly involved in a fraudulent electoral process. In light of these developments, the international community is convinced that the current situation poses a significant risk to the democratic system. Failure to take decisive action could result in further challenges that could potentially lead to the erosion of democratic institutions and, in turn, contribute to a new wave of mass migration. It is important to recognize that geopolitical interests play a significant role in shaping the external landscape, which in turn presents a complex environment for addressing the immediate challenge of legitimizing the elections in Venezuela.

There is an alternative to conflict that could be a peaceful option, but it is not currently being considered by the regime. It may, however, be the healthiest way for them to manage the risks they face in the current climate. In light of the unyielding stance taken by the regime, it is evident that fear is a driving force. They are concerned about the potential loss of power and stability, as well as the prospect of imprisonment or the forfeiture of their assets. This is the key to understanding their position.

The issue must be examined in the light of the globalization that has entered the country represented by Russian, Chinese and Iranian interests, the progressive movement, represented by the Sao Pablo Forum, the interests of the guerrilla, drug trafficking and an illicit business network. In this context, the peaceful way through clear negotiations can be achieved in exchange for some concessions aimed at: guaranteeing Chinese interests and commercial contracts, conciliating with the socialist governments of the region for democratic and non-interventionist coexistence and providing national immunity to the leaders of the regime, guaranteeing their survival and linking a period of transition and peace.

In return, we ask for the release of political prisoners, the suspension of the judicialization of the opposition, and the convening of the elections for mayors, governors, and deputies to the National Assembly with international supervision in December of this year. Furthermore, we request the establishment of a liaison commission within the legal framework with the privileges of an elected president.

All this is possible by overcoming the irreducible personal position of the incumbent president and the sinister characters that act as puppeteers of power, and through an agreement using the leverage of an experienced arbiter such as Norway, who has the moral authority to summon the Chinese, Brazilian, American diplomacy and the diplomatic representation of a Latin American representative, who, with their negotiating capacity, will bring the actions of the president-elect and the incumbent president closer to that peaceful transition and, finally, achieve a solution to the serious social crisis, American diplomacy and the diplomatic representation of a Latin American representative, who with their negotiating capacity will bring closer the actions of the elected president and the president in office for this transition in peace and finally achieve a way out of the serious social crisis, recover governability and fulfill the wishes of the Venezuelan people's will for change.

The influence of national and international political personalities and the desire for peace instead of a social explosion that can be painful.